Prognostic value of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 viral load and antibodies in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Observational studies have identified the potential prognostic value for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, viral load in nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs produced inconsistent results in prognostic analyses, and the prognostic value of viral load or antibodies has not been confirmed in large clinical trials. COVACTA and REMDACTA were double-blind, randomized, controlled trials with a combined enrollment of 1078 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 treated with tocilizumab or placebo in COVACTA or tocilizumab plus remdesivir or placebo plus remdesivir in REMDACTA. We assessed the potential prognostic value of NP and serum SARS-CoV-2 viral load and serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at baseline as biomarkers for clinical outcomes in patients enrolled in these trials. In adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, serum viral load was a more reliable predictor of clinical outcomes than NP viral load; high serum viral load was associated with higher risk for death and mechanical ventilation/death and lower likelihood of hospital discharge (high vs. negative viral load hazard ratios [95% confidence interval {CI}] were 2.87 [1.57-5.25], 3.86 [2.23-6.68], and 0.23 [0.14-0.36], respectively, in COVACTA and 8.11 [2.95-22.26], 10.29 [4.5-23.55], and 0.21 [0.15-0.29], respectively, in REMDACTA) and high serum viral load correlated with levels of inflammatory cytokines and lung damage biomarkers. High anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibody (ACOV2S) levels were associated with higher likelihood of hospital discharge (high vs. below the limit of quantification hazard ratios [95% CI] were 2.55 [1.59-4.08] for COVACTA and 1.54 [1.13-2.09] for REMDACTA). These results support the role of baseline SARS-CoV-2 serum viral load and ACOV2S antibody titers in predicting clinical outcomes for patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Factors associated with COVID-19 viral and antibody test positivity and assessment of test concordance: a retrospective cohort study using electronic health records from the USA

ObjectivesTo identify factors associated with COVID-19 test positivity and assess viral and antibody test concordance.DesignObservational retrospective cohort study.SettingOptum de-identified electronic health records including over 700 hospitals and 7000 clinics in the USA.ParticipantsThere were 891 754 patients who had a COVID-19 test identified in their electronic health record between 20 February 2020 and 10 July 2020.Primary and secondary outcome measuresPer cent of viral and antibody tests positive for COVID-19 (‘positivity rate’);adjusted ORs for factors associated with COVID-19 viral and antibody test positivity;and per cent concordance between positive viral and subsequent antibody test results.ResultsOverall positivity rate was 9% (70 472 of 771 278) and 12% (11 094 of 91 741) for viral and antibody tests, respectively. Positivity rate was inversely associated with the number of individuals tested and decreased over time across regions and race/ethnicities. Antibody test concordance among patients with an initial positive viral test was 91% (71%–95% depending on time between tests). Among tests separated by at least 2 weeks, discordant results occurred in 7% of patients and 9% of immunocompromised patients. Factors associated with increased odds of viral and antibody positivity in multivariable models included: male sex, Hispanic or non-Hispanic black or Asian race/ethnicity, uninsured or Medicaid insurance and Northeast residence. We identified a negative dose effect between the number of comorbidities and viral and antibody test positivity. Paediatric patients had reduced odds (OR=0.60, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.64) of a positive viral test but increased odds (OR=1.90, 95% CI 1.62 to 2.23) of a positive antibody test compared with those aged 18–34 years old.ConclusionsThis study identified sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with COVID-19 test positivity and provided real-world evidence demonstrating high antibody test concordance among viral-positive patients.

Tocilizumab in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 pneumonia: Efficacy, safety, viral clearance, and antibody response from a randomised controlled trial (COVACTA).

Background: In COVACTA, a randomised, placebo-controlled trial in patients hospitalised with coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), tocilizumab did not improve 28-day mortality, but shortened hospital and intensive care unit stay. Longer-term effects of tocilizumab in patients with COVID-19 are unknown. Therefore, the efficacy and safety of tocilizumab in COVID-19 beyond day 28 and its impact on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) clearance and antibody response in COVACTA were investigated. Methods: Adults in Europe and North America hospitalised with COVID-19 (N = 452) between April 3, 2020 and May 28, 2020 were randomly assigned (2:1) to double-blind intravenous tocilizumab or placebo and assessed for efficacy and safety through day 60. Assessments included mortality, time to hospital discharge, SARS-CoV-2 viral load in nasopharyngeal swab and serum samples, and neutralising anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in serum. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04320615. Findings: By day 60, 24·5% (72/294) of patients in the tocilizumab arm and 25·0% (36/144) in the placebo arm died (weighted difference -0·5% [95% CI -9·1 to 8·0]), and 67·0% (197/294) in the tocilizumab arm and 63·9% (92/144) in the placebo arm were discharged from the hospital. Serious infections occurred in 24·1% (71/295) of patients in the tocilizumab arm and 29·4% (42/143) in the placebo arm. Median time to negative reverse transcriptase-quantitative polymerase chain reaction result in nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal samples was 15·0 days (95% CI 14·0 to 21·0) in the tocilizumab arm and 21·0 days (95% CI 14·0 to 28·0) in the placebo arm. All tested patients had positive test results for neutralising anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at day 60. Interpretation: There was no mortality benefit with tocilizumab through day 60. Tocilizumab did not impair viral clearance or host immune response, and no new safety signals were observed. Future investigations may explore potential biomarkers to optimize patient selection for tocilizumab treatment and combination therapy with other treatments. Funding: F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and the US Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, under OT number HHSO100201800036C.

Safety and Efficacy of Tocilizumab 4 or 8 mg/kg in Hospitalized Patients With Moderate to Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pneumonia: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Tocilizumab, an interleukin 6 receptor (IL-6R) antagonist monoclonal antibody, has shown efficacy in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia, but the optimal dose is unknown. METHODS: Patients hospitalized for moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia were randomized 1:1 to receive standard of care treatment and 1-2 doses of intravenous tocilizumab 4 mg/kg or 8 mg/kg (open-label). Primary pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic end points were serum concentrations of tocilizumab and soluble interleukin 6 receptor (sIL-6R), IL-6, ferritin, and C-reactive protein (CRP), from baseline to day 60. The secondary end point was safety. Key exploratory efficacy end points included clinical status, time to discharge, mortality rate, and incidence of mechanical ventilation. RESULTS: Of 100 patients randomized, 49 received tocilizumab 4 mg/kg and 48 received 8 mg/kg. In pharmacokinetic and sIL-6R assessments, dose-dependent differences were seen in patients who received 1 or 2 doses of 4 or 8 mg/kg. Serum concentrations of IL-6, ferritin, and CRP and safety outcomes were comparable between groups. Through day 60, serious adverse events were reported in 30.6% and 25.0% of patients in the 4- and 8-mg/kg groups, respectively. Eight patients (16.3%) in the 4-mg/kg group and 6 (12.5%) in the 8-mg/kg group died. Exploratory time-to-event outcomes favored 8 mg/kg within the first 2 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia who received tocilizumab 4 or 8 mg/kg, pharmacokinetic and sIL-6R assessments showed expected dose-dependent effects; pharmacodynamic assessments and safety were comparable, with no new safety signals. Further study is required before a lower dose of tocilizumab can be recommended in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04363736.

Severity of COVID-19 and adverse long-term outcomes: a retrospective cohort study based on a US electronic health record database.

OBJECTIVE: To identify potential risk factors for adverse long-term outcomes (LTOs) associated with COVID-19, using a large electronic health record (EHR) database. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. Patients with COVID-19 were assigned into subcohorts according to most intensive treatment setting experienced. Newly diagnosed conditions were classified as respiratory, cardiovascular or mental health LTOs at >30-≤90 or >90-≤180 days after COVID-19 diagnosis or hospital discharge. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify any association of treatment setting (as a proxy for disease severity) with LTO incidence. SETTING: Optum deidentified COVID-19 EHR dataset drawn from hospitals and clinics across the USA. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 (N=57 748) from 20 February to 4 July 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES: Incidence of new clinical conditions after COVID-19 diagnosis or hospital discharge and the association of treatment setting (as a proxy for disease severity) with their risk of occurrence. RESULTS: Patients were assigned into one of six subcohorts: outpatient (n=22 788), emergency room (ER) with same-day COVID-19 diagnosis (n=11 633), ER with COVID-19 diagnosis≤21 days before ER visit (n=2877), hospitalisation without intensive care unit (ICU; n=16 653), ICU without ventilation (n=1837) and ICU with ventilation (n=1960). Respiratory LTOs were more common than cardiovascular or mental health LTOs across subcohorts and LTO incidence was higher in hospitalised versus non-hospitalised subcohorts. Patients with the most severe disease were at increased risk of respiratory (risk ratio (RR) 1.86, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.21), cardiovascular (RR 2.65, 95% CI 1.49 to 4.43) and mental health outcomes (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.91) up to 6 months after hospital discharge compared with outpatients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with severe COVID-19 had increased risk of new clinical conditions up to 6 months after hospital discharge. The extent that treatment setting (eg, ICU) contributed to these conditions is unknown, but strategies to prevent COVID-19 progression may nonetheless minimise their occurrence.

Prognostic and Predictive Biomarkers in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Treated With Tocilizumab in a Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVES: To explore candidate prognostic and predictive biomarkers identified in retrospective observational studies (interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, ferritin, lymphocytes, monocytes, neutrophils, d-dimer, and platelets) in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia after treatment with tocilizumab, an anti-interleukin-6 receptor antibody, using data from the COVACTA trial in patients hospitalized with severe coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia. DESIGN: Exploratory analysis from a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. SETTING: Hospitals in North America and Europe. PATIENTS: Adults hospitalized with severe coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia receiving standard care. INTERVENTION: Randomly assigned 2:1 to IV tocilizumab 8 mg/kg or placebo. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Candidate biomarkers were measured in 295 patients in the tocilizumab arm and 142 patients in the placebo arm. Efficacy outcomes assessed were clinical status on a seven-category ordinal scale (1, discharge; 7, death), mortality, time to hospital discharge, and mechanical ventilation (if not receiving it at randomization) through day 28. Prognostic and predictive biomarkers were evaluated continuously with proportional odds, binomial or Fine-Gray models, and additional sensitivity analyses. Modeling in the placebo arm showed all candidate biomarkers except lactate dehydrogenase and d-dimer were strongly prognostic for day 28 clinical outcomes of mortality, mechanical ventilation, clinical status, and time to hospital discharge. Modeling in the tocilizumab arm showed a predictive value of ferritin for day 28 clinical outcomes of mortality (predictive interaction, p = 0.03), mechanical ventilation (predictive interaction, p = 0.01), and clinical status (predictive interaction, p = 0.02) compared with placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple biomarkers prognostic for clinical outcomes were confirmed in COVACTA. Ferritin was identified as a predictive biomarker for the effects of tocilizumab in the COVACTA patient population; high ferritin levels were associated with better clinical outcomes for tocilizumab compared with placebo at day 28.

Tocilizumab and remdesivir in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia: a randomized clinical trial.

PURPOSE: Trials of tocilizumab in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia have demonstrated mixed results, and the role of tocilizumab in combination with other treatments is uncertain. Here we evaluated whether tocilizumab plus remdesivir provides greater benefit than remdesivir alone in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial included patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 pneumonia requiring > 6 L/min supplemental oxygen. Patients were randomly assigned (2:1 ratio) to receive tocilizumab 8 mg/kg or placebo intravenously plus ≤ 10 days of remdesivir. The primary outcome was time from randomization to hospital discharge or "ready for discharge" (defined as category 1, assessed by the investigator on a 7-category ordinal scale of clinical status) to day 28. Patients were followed for 60 days. RESULTS: Among 649 enrolled patients, 434 were randomly assigned to tocilizumab plus remdesivir and 215 to placebo plus remdesivir. 566 patients (88.2%) received corticosteroids during the trial to day 28. Median time from randomization to hospital discharge or "ready for discharge" was 14 (95% CI 12-15) days with tocilizumab plus remdesivir and 14 (95% CI 11-16) days with placebo plus remdesivir [log-rank P = 0.74; Cox proportional hazards ratio 0.97 (95% CI 0.78-1.19)]. Serious adverse events occurred in 128 (29.8%) tocilizumab plus remdesivir and 72 (33.8%) placebo plus remdesivir patients; 78 (18.2%) and 42 (19.7%) patients, respectively, died by day 28. CONCLUSIONS: Tocilizumab plus remdesivir did not shorten time to hospital discharge or "ready for discharge" to day 28 compared with placebo plus remdesivir in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

Prognostic model to identify and quantify risk factors for mortality among hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the USA.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a prognostic model to identify and quantify risk factors for mortality among patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. Patients were randomly assigned to either training (80%) or test (20%) sets. The training set was used to fit a multivariable logistic regression. Predictors were ranked using variable importance metrics. Models were assessed by C-indices, Brier scores and calibration plots in the test set. SETTING: Optum de-identified COVID-19 Electronic Health Record dataset including over 700 hospitals and 7000 clinics in the USA. PARTICIPANTS: 17 086 patients hospitalised with COVID-19 between 20 February 2020 and 5 June 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All-cause mortality while hospitalised. RESULTS: The full model that included information on demographics, comorbidities, laboratory results, and vital signs had good discrimination (C-index=0.87) and was well calibrated, with some overpredictions for the most at-risk patients. Results were similar on the training and test sets, suggesting that there was little overfitting. Age was the most important risk factor. The performance of models that included all demographics and comorbidities (C-index=0.79) was only slightly better than a model that only included age (C-index=0.76). Across the study period, predicted mortality was 1.3% for patients aged 18 years old, 8.9% for 55 years old and 28.7% for 85 years old. Predicted mortality across all ages declined over the study period from 22.4% by March to 14.0% by May. CONCLUSION: Age was the most important predictor of all-cause mortality, although vital signs and laboratory results added considerable prognostic information, with oxygen saturation, temperature, respiratory rate, lactate dehydrogenase and white cell count being among the most important predictors. Demographic and comorbidity factors did not improve model performance appreciably. The full model had good discrimination and was reasonably well calibrated, suggesting that it may be useful for assessment of prognosis.

Tocilizumab in Hospitalized Patients with Severe Covid-19 Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is associated with immune dysregulation and hyperinflammation, including elevated interleukin-6 levels. The use of tocilizumab, a monoclonal antibody against the interleukin-6 receptor, has resulted in better outcomes in patients with severe Covid-19 pneumonia in case reports and retrospective observational cohort studies. Data are needed from randomized, placebo-controlled trials. METHODS: In this phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned patients who were hospitalized with severe Covid-19 pneumonia in a 2:1 ratio receive a single intravenous infusion of tocilizumab (at a dose of 8 mg per kilogram of body weight) or placebo. Approximately one quarter of the participants received a second dose of tocilizumab or placebo 8 to 24 hours after the first dose. The primary outcome was clinical status at day 28 on an ordinal scale ranging from 1 (discharged or ready for discharge) to 7 (death) in the modified intention-to-treat population, which included all the patients who had received at least one dose of tocilizumab or placebo. RESULTS: Of the 452 patients who underwent randomization, 438 (294 in the tocilizumab group and 144 in the placebo group) were included in the primary and secondary analyses. The median value for clinical status on the ordinal scale at day 28 was 1.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0 to 1.0) in the tocilizumab group and 2.0 (non-ICU hospitalization without supplemental oxygen) (95% CI, 1.0 to 4.0) in the placebo group (between-group difference, -1.0; 95% CI, -2.5 to 0; P = 0.31 by the van Elteren test). In the safety population, serious adverse events occurred in 103 of 295 patients (34.9%) in the tocilizumab group and in 55 of 143 patients (38.5%) in the placebo group. Mortality at day 28 was 19.7% in the tocilizumab group and 19.4% in the placebo group (weighted difference, 0.3 percentage points; 95% CI, -7.6 to 8.2; nominal P = 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: In this randomized trial involving hospitalized patients with severe Covid-19 pneumonia, the use of tocilizumab did not result in significantly better clinical status or lower mortality than placebo at 28 days. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche and the Department of Health and Human Services; COVACTA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04320615.).